By Leslie Caubble, CFI/IGI
The pilot shortage has made headlines for several years, and the result has been a record number of young people going into flight training and other adults making a career change for the allure of becoming an airline pilot. There were a record-breaking number of pilots hired 2021-2023, and that’s when we really began to hear the term “pilot shortage” more across the news.
One needs to consider the 2021-2023 hiring surge happened post-Covid, when the public returned to air travel after many were homebound for a year or two. During the pandemic when airlines were operating minimally, many commercial airline pilots took early retirement incentives or hopped over to corporate and freight carriers, where demand skyrocketed. That left a huge hole and major shortage of pilots in the airlines, who hired many from the regional airline pool, who in turn hired from the flight instructor ranks. There was a feel of desperation and urgency for hiring pilots unlike the industry has seen in quite a while.
Now that the hiring environment has slowed down, one may argue there’s no real pilot shortage anymore. In fact, 2024 saw roughly a 40% decrease in hiring compared to 2023, according to FAPA.aero.
Many people, especially those who are trying their best to get airline interviews, say the pilot shortage is “fake news.” If there’s a pilot shortage, why has it been so difficult to get hired this past year?
Pilot hiring is an unpredictable roller-coaster ride, especially when you factor in economic downturns, a pandemic, supply chain issues, and demand for passenger travel. Why the downturn in hiring over the last 12-18 months?
Current Factors Affecting Hiring During the Pilot Shortage
1) Supply chain issues
There have been major equipment delays at Boeing and Airbus, and Boeing still is dealing with manufacturing woes. Both companies have faced various manufacturing, quality, and production challenges that have delayed deliveries of aircraft. No new planes = No pilots needed.
2) Rising costs and inflation
It’s no secret that the last few years have been hard on everyone financially due to rising costs and inflation. This goes for airline carriers as well. Airlines have been more cautious in their approach to hiring to help defray these costs. Now that the 2024 election is over, the economic uncertainty remains… will we see some relief with a new administration?
3) ATC shortages
A continued shortage of air traffic controllers causes many delays, cancellations, and long wait times at the airport. Some sectors have regular traffic flow control due to lack of ATC personnel. Airlines are forced to modify or even cut back their schedules to accommodate, therefore limiting the number of pilots needed. Good news… the FAA exceeded an ATC hiring goal in 2024.
4) Operational challenges
Travel demand remains strong, but airlines have faced struggles with pilot training backlogs, maintenance, and staffing. There’s been ongoing competition between major carriers and Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers, such as Spirit Airlines, which has affected consumer habits and demand. ULCCs are dealing with these market challenges, and therefore haven’t hired at the same pace. Some major carriers are in a “holding pattern” of sorts as various mergers play out. There was the failed merger between Spirit and JetBlue, and we have yet to see how the Hawaiian & Alaska Airlines merger will affect hiring this year.
Despite some of the challenges that certain airlines and manufacturers have faced over the last couple of years, there still is healthy growth predicted!
You can look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.gov) and the prediction is that there will be 5% more airline and commercial pilots hired each year through 2033. That equals to roughly 18,500 new pilots to be hired.
Factors That Could Contribute to a Positive Hiring Trend
1) Population and wealth are increasing.
More people means more people traveling, and more cargo to be shipped. Despite the inflation we’ve experienced recently, people are generally making more money and managing it smarter. There’s more disposable income for travel than ever before. Airlines as well are putting long-term strategies in place to stay competitive during future downturns.
2) Pilots are retiring.
17,000 mandatory retirements are projected by the end of the decade. A good number of these retirements will happen during the next 3-5 years. New pilots need to be in the training pipeline to fill these shoes.
3) Supply chain issues resolving.
It’s still a long road, but aircraft deliveries and fleet growth are getting back on track, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). It’s also easy to focus on what’s happening in the United States, but orders for new aircraft are not just happening within the U.S., but worldwide.
4) Stabilization of hiring trends.
Let’s face it, the hiring surge of 2021-2023 was an outlier. Those who have watched the industry for decades know that we are in this for the long-haul, and looking toward the next decade there’s no denying that we will need more pilots. Hiring should stabilize to pre-Covid “normal” within the next year or so, if not slightly higher numbers.
How Can You Be More Competitive in the Future?
1) Fly, fly, fly!
Hours are gold, and total time could mean the difference between you and another applicant. You may already be a CFI working hard to build your hours. Consider giving yourself an even greater competitive edge by pursuing your CFI-Instrument, Multi-Engine Instructor, or obtaining your seaplane rating or tailwheel endorsement. Whatever you do, keep building those hours.
2) Network
Join aviation groups and associations, volunteer, and attend events at your local and regional airports. So many career opportunities happen because of face-to-face meetings and networking. Air shows and national conferences are other great places to meet people and get noticed.
3) Strategic Job Searching
Your dream might be to fly for a major carrier. Don’t lose sight of the goal but be open to other opportunities in the meantime. There are some hidden gems within the Part 135 and Part 91 worlds. Open your mind to the possibility of a job with freight, charter, or corporate aviation. Jobs like these will get you experience in the National Airspace System and other types of aircraft.
4) Be ready for an interview!
There are many things you can do to be poised and ready to act when you get called for an interview. Define your goals, create an action plan, fine-tune your resume, study technical material, and consider hiring an aviation career coach to mentor you through the process.
The pilot shortage is still a real thing. However, the way the airlines are responding to it now is more strategic and methodical. The aviation industry is very cyclical with ups and downs. Hopefully we won’t see another pandemic, but you can count on continued economic and supply chain impacts in the future. When you take a step back and look from the 25,000 ft. view, we still see the trajectory of pilot hiring to steadily climb.
The question is, how are you preparing for the next hiring wave? Will you be ready?
By Leslie Caubble, CFI/IGI
Northstar Aviation References brings you the Pre-Tabbed ASA FAR/AIM, DIY tabs for your FAR/AIM and other pilot resources so that you can more easily study the regulations that form the foundation of your flying career or hobby. Have any questions? Check out our FAQs page or contact us. Check out other blog posts here.